Bloomberg HT published the survey results regarding the CBRT interest rate decision for January.
According to the survey, the policy rate is expected to be increased by 250 basis points to 45 percent.
The median expectation of 23 institutions participating in Bloomberg HT’s survey was that the CBRT would raise the interest rate by 250 basis points to 45 percent on January 25. According to the survey, the maximum interest rate expectation for January was announced as 45 percent, while the minimum expectation was recorded as 42.5 percent.
On the other hand, 22 institutions also shared their interest rate forecasts for the end of 2024 during this survey period. Accordingly, the market’s forecast for the policy rate at the end of 2024 in January was 40 percent. In addition, while the highest expectation in the 2024 year-end interest rate forecasts was 45 percent, the lowest expectation was 30 percent.
In the said survey, participants were also asked about their expectations for the first interest rate cut. Of the 23 institutions that shared their forecasts, 9 institutions announced that the first interest rate cut could take place in the third quarter of 2024, while another 9 institutions announced that the first cut could take place in the fourth quarter of 2024.
1 institution expects the first rate cut in June, while 1 institution expects the first rate cut in September or October. Finally, 3 of the institutions stated that they do not expect any interest rate cut from CBRT in 2024.