Markets expect CBRT to keep interest rates unchanged


Bloomberg HT’s survey on the CBRT interest rate decision for February was finalized. According to the survey, the policy rate is expected to be kept constant at 45 percent.

All 25 institutions participating in Bloomberg HT’s survey for the interest rate decision to be announced on Thursday, February 22, expect the policy rate to be kept unchanged at 45 percent.

On the other hand, 22 institutions shared their interest rate forecasts for the end of 2024 during this survey period. Accordingly, the market’s forecast for the policy rate at the end of 2024 was 40 percent in February.

In 2024 year-end interest rate forecasts, the highest expectation was recorded at 45 percent and the lowest expectation was recorded at 30 percent.

In the said survey, participants were also asked about their expectations for the first interest rate cut. Accordingly, 11 of the 23 institutions that shared their forecasts expect the first cut from the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in the third quarter of 2024.

6 institutions expect the first rate cut in the fourth quarter of 2024.

While 5 institutions do not expect an interest rate cut from the CBRT in 2024, 1 institution predicts that the first cut will be in September or October.

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